0:00 / 26:00

Transcript

0:00

What if I told you there was an investment strategy that has weathered every major financial crisis of the past century?

0:10

A portfolio so simple, yet so powerful, that it has protected wealth through world wars, depressions, and pandemics.

0:20

This is the story of the Permanent Portfolio - a revolutionary approach to investing that divides wealth equally among four asset classes.

0:30

25% stocks for prosperity. 25% bonds for deflation. 25% gold for inflation. And 25% cash for recession.

0:40

Each asset serves as insurance for the others, creating a self-balancing system designed to preserve and grow wealth in any economic climate.

0:50

Let's journey through history and discover how this simple allocation has stood the test of time.

2:00

Our story begins in the early 1900s, a period known as the Belle Époque - a beautiful era of peace and prosperity.

2:10

Global trade flourished, the gold standard provided monetary stability, and investors enjoyed steady returns.

2:20

During this period, a Permanent Portfolio would have grown steadily, with stocks leading the way and gold providing a stable foundation.

2:30

Government bonds yielded a reliable 3-4%, while cash holdings maintained their purchasing power under the gold standard.

2:40

But this golden age was about to end. In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand would plunge the world into chaos.

5:00

The Great War brought unprecedented financial turmoil. Stock markets closed, currencies collapsed, and inflation soared.

5:10

Yet the Permanent Portfolio demonstrated its first major test of resilience. As stocks plummeted, government bonds surged.

5:20

Gold, though officially fixed in price, became increasingly valuable as paper currencies lost credibility.

5:30

Cash, while eroded by inflation, provided crucial liquidity when other assets became illiquid or untradeable.

5:40

By wars end, a Permanent Portfolio had not only survived but maintained its purchasing power - a remarkable achievement.

8:00

The 1920s roared with optimism. Stock prices soared to unprecedented heights, and everyone wanted in on the action.

8:10

A traditional investor going "all-in" on stocks would have seen spectacular gains - until October 29, 1929.

8:20

Black Tuesday marked the beginning of the Great Depression. Stocks lost 89% of their value. Banks failed. Unemployment soared to 25%.

8:30

But the Permanent Portfolio told a different story. While stocks crashed, government bonds soared as deflation took hold.

8:40

Cash became king in a deflationary spiral, and gold - repriced by Roosevelt in 1933 - jumped from $20 to $35 per ounce.

8:50

By 1935, while buy-and-hold stock investors were still down 60%, the Permanent Portfolio had recovered and grown.

12:00

World War II brought new challenges. Governments needed funding, and they turned to their citizens through war bonds.

12:10

The Permanent Portfolios bond allocation benefited from massive government buying programs that kept yields artificially low.

12:20

Stocks, after initial uncertainty, began a steady climb as wartime production boosted corporate profits.

12:30

Gold remained fixed at $35, but its real value was preserved as inflation was controlled through rationing and price controls.

12:40

By wars end in 1945, the Permanent Portfolio had once again protected and grown wealth through a global catastrophe.

15:00

The post-war era ushered in an unprecedented economic boom. The American middle class flourished, and stocks entered a golden age.

15:10

From 1945 to 1970, the S&P 500 delivered spectacular returns. Many questioned the need for diversification.

15:20

But the Permanent Portfolio continued its steady march. Stocks provided growth, bonds offered stability, and cash maintained liquidity.

15:30

Gold, still fixed at $35, seemed like dead money. Yet patient holders would soon be rewarded beyond their wildest dreams.

15:40

Because in 1971, everything would change when President Nixon closed the gold window and ended the Bretton Woods system.

19:00

The 1970s brought stagflation - a toxic combination of high inflation and economic stagnation that puzzled economists.

19:10

Stocks lost half their value in real terms. Bonds were crushed by rising interest rates. Cash was eroded by double-digit inflation.

19:20

But gold exploded from $35 to $850 - a 24-fold increase that saved the Permanent Portfolio from the inflation monster.

19:30

This period perfectly demonstrated why each asset class matters. When three assets struggled, the fourth saved the day.

19:40

The 1980s and 90s brought new challenges - the 1987 crash, the S&L crisis, the dot-com bubble. Through it all, the Portfolio endured.

23:00

The new millennium began with the dot-com crash. Tech stocks lost 78% of their value, wiping out trillions in wealth.

23:10

Then came 2008 - the Global Financial Crisis. Banks collapsed, real estate crashed, and fear gripped the markets.

23:20

Once again, the Permanent Portfolio proved its worth. While stocks plunged, government bonds and gold soared.

23:30

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 delivered another test. Markets crashed 34% in just 33 days - the fastest bear market in history.

23:40

Yet by years end, a Permanent Portfolio had not just recovered but reached new highs, proving its resilience once more.

23:50

Over the past century, through wars, depressions, inflations, and deflations, this simple strategy has never failed.

24:00

The Permanent Portfolio isnt about beating the market - its about surviving and thriving no matter what the market does.

24:10

As we face an uncertain future, perhaps the greatest lesson from the past is this: true wealth comes not from predicting the future, but from preparing for it.