Transcript
What if I told you there was an investment strategy that has weathered every major financial crisis of the past century?
A portfolio so simple, yet so powerful, that it has protected wealth through world wars, depressions, and pandemics.
This is the story of the Permanent Portfolio - a revolutionary approach to investing that divides wealth equally among four asset classes.
25% stocks for prosperity. 25% bonds for deflation. 25% gold for inflation. And 25% cash for recession.
Each asset serves as insurance for the others, creating a self-balancing system designed to preserve and grow wealth in any economic climate.
Let's journey through history and discover how this simple allocation has stood the test of time.
Our story begins in the early 1900s, a period known as the Belle Époque - a beautiful era of peace and prosperity.
Global trade flourished, the gold standard provided monetary stability, and investors enjoyed steady returns.
During this period, a Permanent Portfolio would have grown steadily, with stocks leading the way and gold providing a stable foundation.
Government bonds yielded a reliable 3-4%, while cash holdings maintained their purchasing power under the gold standard.
But this golden age was about to end. In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand would plunge the world into chaos.
The Great War brought unprecedented financial turmoil. Stock markets closed, currencies collapsed, and inflation soared.
Yet the Permanent Portfolio demonstrated its first major test of resilience. As stocks plummeted, government bonds surged.
Gold, though officially fixed in price, became increasingly valuable as paper currencies lost credibility.
Cash, while eroded by inflation, provided crucial liquidity when other assets became illiquid or untradeable.
By wars end, a Permanent Portfolio had not only survived but maintained its purchasing power - a remarkable achievement.
The 1920s roared with optimism. Stock prices soared to unprecedented heights, and everyone wanted in on the action.
A traditional investor going "all-in" on stocks would have seen spectacular gains - until October 29, 1929.
Black Tuesday marked the beginning of the Great Depression. Stocks lost 89% of their value. Banks failed. Unemployment soared to 25%.
But the Permanent Portfolio told a different story. While stocks crashed, government bonds soared as deflation took hold.
Cash became king in a deflationary spiral, and gold - repriced by Roosevelt in 1933 - jumped from $20 to $35 per ounce.
By 1935, while buy-and-hold stock investors were still down 60%, the Permanent Portfolio had recovered and grown.
World War II brought new challenges. Governments needed funding, and they turned to their citizens through war bonds.
The Permanent Portfolios bond allocation benefited from massive government buying programs that kept yields artificially low.
Stocks, after initial uncertainty, began a steady climb as wartime production boosted corporate profits.
Gold remained fixed at $35, but its real value was preserved as inflation was controlled through rationing and price controls.
By wars end in 1945, the Permanent Portfolio had once again protected and grown wealth through a global catastrophe.
The post-war era ushered in an unprecedented economic boom. The American middle class flourished, and stocks entered a golden age.
From 1945 to 1970, the S&P 500 delivered spectacular returns. Many questioned the need for diversification.
But the Permanent Portfolio continued its steady march. Stocks provided growth, bonds offered stability, and cash maintained liquidity.
Gold, still fixed at $35, seemed like dead money. Yet patient holders would soon be rewarded beyond their wildest dreams.
Because in 1971, everything would change when President Nixon closed the gold window and ended the Bretton Woods system.
The 1970s brought stagflation - a toxic combination of high inflation and economic stagnation that puzzled economists.
Stocks lost half their value in real terms. Bonds were crushed by rising interest rates. Cash was eroded by double-digit inflation.
But gold exploded from $35 to $850 - a 24-fold increase that saved the Permanent Portfolio from the inflation monster.
This period perfectly demonstrated why each asset class matters. When three assets struggled, the fourth saved the day.
The 1980s and 90s brought new challenges - the 1987 crash, the S&L crisis, the dot-com bubble. Through it all, the Portfolio endured.
The new millennium began with the dot-com crash. Tech stocks lost 78% of their value, wiping out trillions in wealth.
Then came 2008 - the Global Financial Crisis. Banks collapsed, real estate crashed, and fear gripped the markets.
Once again, the Permanent Portfolio proved its worth. While stocks plunged, government bonds and gold soared.
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 delivered another test. Markets crashed 34% in just 33 days - the fastest bear market in history.
Yet by years end, a Permanent Portfolio had not just recovered but reached new highs, proving its resilience once more.
Over the past century, through wars, depressions, inflations, and deflations, this simple strategy has never failed.
The Permanent Portfolio isnt about beating the market - its about surviving and thriving no matter what the market does.
As we face an uncertain future, perhaps the greatest lesson from the past is this: true wealth comes not from predicting the future, but from preparing for it.